Chorus is a variation on a minor Royal Road followed by a bog standard Royal Road (Am, C): Dm Em C Am F G Em Am
Outro repeats the F G Em Am
The verse plays around with the chords from the Royal Road but it's all over Am in the bass, so whatever, it doesn't really count.

Numbers Don’t Lie by ellipsis

You think you got me over the turn
Keep your eyes locked on me
Stare into my frozen face
Try to see what you can see

I know what you want
You don’t know what I need
Chips down, cards up
I’m the action man
You’re an open book for me to read

In the mirror I look like a loser
But the numbers don’t lie
Aces in the hole but you’ll never know
The numbers don’t lie

One eyed Jacks setting traps
But I look innocent and true
Be careful what you wish for
My eyes will whisper it to you

In the mirror I look like a loser
But the numbers don’t lie
Aces in the hole but you’ll never know
The numbers don’t lie

They call me the grand old man
But I’m young at heart
Diamond in the rough
Pressure never cracks me apart

When the river comes it’s a flood
Hear the levee break
Close your eyes as I reveal my hand
Now your hand starts to shake

Look in the mirror, the face of a loser
Cuz the numbers don’t lie
Aces in the hole but you’ll never know
The numbers don’t lie
But I do